Meeting future energy needs

NGP&E. US energy consumption is projected to increase by about 32 percent by 2020. Is the US ready to meet its future energy needs?
BW. Yes, the United States is prepared to meet an increase of 32 percent by 2020. However, we hope that energy efficiency and conservation efforts will reduce the rate of increase such that demand will grow by less than 32 percent. Meeting future demands will require policy shifts that encourage efficiency such as decoupling utility returns from sales; incentivizing consumers to purchase more energy efficient vehicles and appliances and continued research, development and demonstration of advanced technologies and a massive effort of consumer education.

Nevertheless, US policy-makers also must take action to assure that industry has access to domestic reserves, particularly the outer continental shelf on federal lands.

NGP&E. The US has been slow to recognize that climate change is very likely the result of human actions. However, President Bush is starting to shift his ground and has vowed to reduce US oil dependency and to promote alternative automobile fuels. Do you think the USA is committed enough to reducing emissions and fighting global warming?
BW. The US government and the energy industry has focused on reducing greenhouse gas intensities – that is, emissions per unit of gross domestic product on a voluntary basis. It has invested billions of dollars in climate science and technology development.

Now, several US states have put mandatory greenhouse gas reduction regimes in place.
Companies active in these states must comply, and consequently deal with different climate regimes in different jurisdictions. Multinational companies active in either the European Union or other countries that have signed the Kyoto Protocol have yet still different regimes to deal with. This is resulting in business looking more closely at the potential for mandatory emissions.

A goal of stabilizing and reducing concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere is certainly doable. Two major developments need to occur. First, we must continue scientific and technological research and development (including deployment) to further the potential of energy efficiency, renewable, nuclear and carbon sequestration. We are doing this. And second, we must embrace mechanisms to include India and China in reduction regimes while allowing their economic growth and prosperity. The US is supporting the Asia Pacific Partnership (APP) whereby we join the China and India along with Australia, Japan and South Korea. Progress is being made. Can we and will we do more? Yes!

NGP&E. Which of the renewable energy sources do you think holds the most potential for long-term success in the US and why?
BW. Near-term we are optimistic about wind power. With the production tax credit of 1.5 per kilowatt-hour, wind is competitive with new convention generation. Technology improvement in unit efficiency and siting should continue. It is critical to maintain the production tax credit for longer time frames instead of it expiring every few years. Biofuels have a great potential, particularly if breakthroughs can be achieved in cellousic ethanol. However, they are not silver bullets either. But, the real potential will be solar photovoltaics – possibly sooner than conventional wisdom allows. This technology can be installed on millions of buildings, does not interfere with agricultural production practices and depends on the sun – not the wind – and can meet peak demands for air conditioning in many southern and western locations. If production costs can come down, photovoltaics now used in niche applications can be more widespread.

NGP&E. What are some of the major obstacles for sustainable energy?
BW. Basic physics and economics, both of which are tough to beat. The world’s energy systems are huge and have been built over more than a century. They cannot be changed except over multiple decades. A World Energy Council scenario study indicates that by 2050, over 80 percent of the world’s energy demand will still be met by fossil fuels. The key to sustainability is to develop and deploy fossil energy technology that is cleaner and more sustainable than that used today. This includes carbon capture and storage, integrated gasified combined cycle power plants and more efficient automobiles.

The world has to deal with the reality that coal, petroleum and natural gas will continue to be the workhorses of the world’s economy. No magically sustainable energy ‘wand’ exists that can change this reality. The key is to continue trends now underway to achieve a sustainable fossil energy future. Nuclear and renewable and especially efficiency have large roles to play. We need all energy sources to reach a sustainable energy future.

NGP&E. Do you think that ‘clean coal’ technologies have the ability to revolutionize the energy industry in the US?
BW. Revolutionize is an overstatement. However, clean coal technologies have already provided tremendous improvement in air quality by reducing emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and particulates. Human health improvements – particularly in reducing child respiratory illness – have been dramatic. Cleaner air has reduced respiratory problems for millions of American citizens and given them a better life. Since the 1970s, we have had a 30 percent reduction in pollution while increasing coal use by 300 percent.

On the subject of clean coal technologies, looking into the future, technologies to remove mercury and other pollutants will be important to improved human health. Also, technologies are being developed to convert coal to liquid and gases, which will have environmental and energy security benefits. Hopefully, we can deploy carbon capture and storage technologies to address climate concerns in a significant volume. Nevertheless, we will continue to import huge volumes of petroleum and increasingly natural gas.

NGP&E. US Secretary of Energy, Samuel Bodman recently said in a speech that the ultimate solution to the need for more power (in states like Texas) lies with nuclear generation. What are your thoughts on this energy source?
BW. Secretary Bodman is right: we must get along with intentions to build new nuclear units. About 25 prospective units have been identified. These will be needed to assure that nuclear can contribute about 20 percent of power needs. Furthermore, most of the over 100 reactors operating today will retire in the 2035-2050 time frame. It is conceivable that we could need 150 new plants by 2050. Former Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham has called for 100 new units by 2030.

However, meeting this potential will be challenging. We have not started a new nuclear plant since the 1970s. Experts are concerned over the potential lack of skilled construction labor, experienced design engineers and reactor operators. Also, the United States has three new nuclear reactor designs certified and a new but untested permitting process. Additionally, the capacity to manufacture reactors and steam supply systems is questionable at the needed volumes.

Lastly, it is recognized that the federal government has a legal obligation to take possession of used fuel rods and despite the efforts of Secretaries Bodman, Abraham and their predecessors, this has yet to happen. Regardless of how successful we will be with a new fleet of nuclear units, we will ultimately be relying on fossil fuels, renewables and energy efficiency for most energy requirements through 2050, at least.